Source: Nikkei
The optical component ecosystem—long stable and mature—faces genuine bottlenecks as data center build-outs for AI training and inference consume record volumes of coherent optics and interconnect infrastructure. Manufacturers like Lumentum and Broadcom hit allocation constraints not from raw material scarcity but from fab capacity limits and lead times stretching to 12-18 months. This constraint favors incumbents and penalizes new entrants. Hyperscalers are already adjusting capex priorities: some move toward vertical integration (NVIDIA's optical chip efforts), others toward alternative interconnect architectures. The structural cost baseline for AI infrastructure is rising faster than pricing power can absorb.