AI's Real Reckoning: When Scarcity Becomes Surplus

The piece articulates a critical distinction often lost in startup hagiography: transformative technology and wasteful capital allocation aren't mutually exclusive. As AI infrastructure costs collapse and commoditize—from chips to model weights—the current venture funding boom will face a sudden repricing where only companies with genuine moats (data, distribution, application specificity) survive, while the bulk of VC-funded AI startups collapse into irrelevance. Most of the current wave of $100M+ rounds to companies without defensible unit economics represents capital destruction dressed up as innovation.