Source: The New York Times
China is experiencing a structural mismatch between record university output (12.7M graduates in 2026) and collapsing demand for entry-level positions. AI automation is eliminating junior roles faster than new ones appear. The result is a new consumer cohort—younger, credential-holding, underemployed or locked into precarious gig work—under acute economic pressure. Their spending patterns are shifting toward value, secondhand goods, and experience-based services over status consumption. This creates a second-order effect: declining household formation, marriage rates, and birth rates directly undermine the consumption growth Chinese policymakers depend on to offset manufacturing overcapacity.