Source: Marginal REVOLUTION
The decades-long wage advantage of college graduates is reversing faster than labor economists predicted, with the premium falling 14% in two years as generative AI commodifies knowledge work that once justified tuition debt. This directly threatens the consumer finance ecosystem built on the assumption that a degree delivers predictable income—student loan servicers, for-profit education, and credential-dependent hiring all face simultaneous pressure as employers increasingly test skills over credentials. Young adults with tighter budgets will cut discretionary spending and delay major life milestones, while alternative credential providers—bootcamps, certifications, on-the-job training—gain enrollment from traditional universities.