Compute Shortages, Not Talent, Bottleneck Chinese AI

U.S. export controls on advanced chips constrain Chinese AI development—not because China lacks talent or capital, but because the hardware pipeline is throttled. This shifts competition away from pure research capability toward whoever extracts the most performance from available silicon, favoring companies with better optimization practices and access to legacy chip architectures. American export policy has become the primary lever of competitive advantage, though it also incentivizes China to accelerate domestic chip manufacturing and push Chinese AI labs toward algorithmic approaches that work within hardware constraints.