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# Consumer Sentiment Surveys Are Losing Predictive Power
- URL: https://adjacent.media/signals/consumer-sentiment-surveys-are-losing-predictive-power/
- Published: 2026-04-22T16:03:02.000Z
- Updated: 2026-04-22T16:03:02.000Z
- Description: The traditional consumer confidence indices—Conference Board, University of Michigan—are decoupling from actual spending behavior, making them unreliable guides for retail forecasting and Fed policy decisions.
- Author: Jonathan Greene
- Tags: #signal, theme-consumer, consumer behavior

Source: [Off Message](https://open.substack.com/pub/brianbeutler/p/what-happened-to-consumer-sentiment-trump)

The traditional consumer confidence indices—Conference Board, University of Michigan—are decoupling from actual spending behavior, making them unreliable guides for retail forecasting and Fed policy decisions. Consumers report pessimism about the economy while simultaneously maintaining strong purchasing activity, a contradiction that suggests either the surveys are measuring the wrong psychological construct or consumers have changed how they translate sentiment into action. This matters because retailers, analysts, and policymakers have relied on these monthly readings as leading indicators for 60 years; if they're now lagging indicators of mood rather than predictors of behavior, the entire early-warning system for economic slowdowns requires rework.