Open-Weight Models as Infrastructure: Why Banning Chinese AI Could Backfire

The argument centers on an economic claim: open-weight AI models function as foundational infrastructure—similar to Linux or HTTP—for downstream innovation. A US ban on Chinese open-weight models would create a parallel ecosystem outside American control rather than strengthen domestic advantage, since developers and companies would train on non-US alternatives. Leverage lies not in restricting model availability but in controlling compute, training data, and applications built atop the models. Ceding the neutral platform layer actually weakens the ability to shape how AI gets deployed.