Source: Popular Information
Polymarket's self-description as a "truth machine" obscures a basic problem: prediction markets reward whoever can move prices, not whoever predicts accurately. The platform has become a playground for well-capitalized traders willing to absorb losses on mispriced bets to shift market consensus—a dynamic especially pronounced in low-liquidity markets around elections or geopolitical events. When financial incentives decouple from accuracy, markets become less reliable forecasting tools and more like expensive propaganda vehicles for anyone with deep pockets.