Source: Simon Owens's Media Newsletter
Digital video advertising inherited television's opaque, relationship-dependent pricing model while losing its gatekeepers—creating a massive arbitrage opportunity for fraud. Publishers and platforms face pressure to implement verifiable, programmatic alternatives, but the incumbents profiting from opacity (major platforms, trading desks, attribution vendors) have little incentive to build transparency. The market is likely to bifurcate into cleaned data premium tiers and a growing discount sludge pile. Advertisers are discovering 30–50% of their video spend reaches no human, forcing brands to either overpay for legacy relationships or build proprietary data infrastructure.