Source: Big Technology
Sam Altman's prediction that AI compute will converge to electricity costs assumes datacenter production automation will proceed at current timelines—a premise that ignores physical infrastructure bottlenecks, power grid constraints, and geopolitical competition for semiconductor supply. The question isn't whether AI gets cheaper; it's when the infrastructure and supply chains required to build that cheapness will actually materialize, and whether any single company can capture the economics of that transition. The friction point isn't Moore's Law math—it's the concrete problem of building enough fabs, securing enough power, and navigating nation-state interventions faster than AI model improvements actually demand compute.