Why Prediction Markets Remain Trapped in Sports Betting

Despite regulatory progress and high-profile use cases like Kalshi's bar hedging, prediction markets remain dominated by sports betting. The vast majority of volume flows to sports outcomes rather than political, economic, or event-based predictions. Retail users care more about picking winners than pricing uncertainty. Prediction markets optimize for entertainment value, not information discovery. Until platforms convert sports bettors into genuine risk managers and price discoverers, they will stay niche gambling venues rather than efficient capital-allocating tools.