Evening Scan

The MacBook Air shortage story got weirder today: it's not demand, it's memory chips, and it's not clearing before the holidays. Alibaba jumped back into the open-model arms race less than a week after Kimi K3's moment.

10x+ — Robinhood's prediction-markets revenue growth YoY, now bigger than its stock or crypto trading business. (The Information)

Alibaba drops Qwen3.8-Max, claims it beats Kimi K3 (paywall)

A 2.4T-parameter model with weights dropping next week — China's open-model race is now a weekly release cadence. (Bloomberg)

The global memory shortage hits the MacBook Air

Apple raised the price in June and it's still selling out. Supply chain constraints, rather than weak demand, are driving this story. (TechCrunch)

Robinhood's prediction markets now outearn its stock trading

$156M in a quarter. The "just a niche for election bettors" take aged badly. (The Information)

$100M bitcoin cold-storage hack hits 5,000+ wallets

Cold storage was supposed to be the safe part — worth watching who's holding the bag by Friday. (The Pomp Letter)