Source: Bloomberg (paywall)
The venture capital market is bifurcating sharply. Top-quartile AI-focused funds are generating outsized returns while bottom-quartile performers are lagging further behind than any period in the past decade. Capital concentration and skill gaps in AI investing reinforce each other. For commerce-adjacent startups, this matters because funding access now depends on whether your lead investor made early bets on generative AI, not just traditional VC diligence. Founders face a choice: build AI features to attract capital or accept lower valuations from a shrinking pool of generalists.