Source: Paulkrugman
The economics of renewables have decoupled from U.S. policy, meaning Trump's domestic opposition to clean energy will redirect rather than halt the sector's growth—particularly benefiting Chinese manufacturers who already dominate solar and battery supply chains. When the U.S. retreats from renewable subsidies and standards, capital and manufacturing capacity flow to markets with stronger commitments (Europe, India, parts of Asia), consolidating China's position as the infrastructure vendor to the energy transition. The commercial winner isn't ideological commitment to climate but scale advantage: whoever controls the cost curves and supply chains controls the market, regardless of which administration is in power.