US Export Controls on AI Expose India's Dependence on American Technology

India's AI strategy has relied largely on accessing frontier models from US companies like Anthropic, but recent American export restrictions are forcing policymakers to confront how little domestic capability exists as a fallback. The restrictions expose a structural vulnerability: regulatory decisions made in Washington directly constrain what Indian startups and enterprises can build, a constraint that's difficult to solve quickly given the capital and talent concentration in US AI labs. This is sharpening calls within India for indigenous model development, though most proposed solutions require either significant capital reallocation or closer partnerships with China—both politically fraught options that expose the limited middle ground between US dependence and strategic autonomy.