Source: Axios
A sustained supply shock from Iran conflict would force oil markets to abandon decades of integration and fungibility, splitting into regional blocs with separate pricing, reserve strategies, and trade relationships—similar to how semiconductors fragmented post-2020, but with far greater macroeconomic drag. This isn't hypothetical: U.S. sanctions architecture and Chinese hoarding already fragment oil flows. A kinetic event would accelerate existing hedging behaviors into permanent market structures, raising structural costs for refiners and consumers while embedding geopolitical leverage as a durable feature of energy pricing.