Why Your Attribution Model Is Lying to You

As third-party cookies disappear and signal loss accelerates, marketing platforms are filling data gaps with modeled estimates—then presenting them with the visual authority of measured facts. Brands treating these probabilistic guesses as ground truth are systematically misfunding channels and campaigns, particularly favoring channels where modeling fills the largest gaps rather than where actual performance justifies spend. The risk is the false confidence these polished dashboards create when the underlying inputs are fundamentally uncertain.