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AI coding tools may slow developers down, new study finds

A replication study by METR challenges the assumption that AI assistants uniformly accelerate developer productivity, finding the tools may increase task completion time in some cases. This matters because infrastructure spend and hiring patterns in tech now assume AI's multiplicative effect on human output. If that effect is neutral or negative for core development work, companies are misallocating resources and developers are adopting practices that don't measurably improve their output. The finding also exposes a gap between adoption behavior—developers now expect AI assistance as baseline—and actual performance gains, creating pressure on companies to justify AI tooling costs.