Why Venture Capital Stopped Chasing 10x Returns
Source: Mat's Newsletter
The venture industry has systematized itself around delivering predictable 4-5x returns to LPs rather than maximizing upside, which means founders in later stages get more capital competition while truly experimental bets get starved. The industry used to take bigger risks on smaller checks. As competition intensified and each cohort of VCs copied what worked, firms moved earlier and earlier in the funding chain—from Series A to seed to pre-seed—to find ownership at scale. By optimizing for fund-to-fund continuity rather than exceptional returns, venture has become a machine for funding incremental improvements rather than 10x businesses. This changes not just who gets money but what gets built.