// private markets

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Private Valuations Have Lost Their Meaning

Private company valuations have become detached from fundamental value signals. They're inflated by favorable financing terms, founder-friendly structures, and investor optimism rather than market-tested pricing. Founders, employees, and secondary buyers are making major financial decisions—equity comp, wealth planning, M&A targets—based on numbers that won't survive a real market test. When these companies exit or raise at realistic multiples, the gap between paper value and actual price becomes visible. This affects how capital allocates across the startup ecosystem and whether wealth created on paper translates to actual returns.

Half of US unicorns stuck without fresh capital as AI reshapes startup value

The private markets are revaluing pre-AI startups brutally. More than 220 former unicorns are now valued below $1B, and half have not raised capital in three years. This is a structural shift, not a cyclical funding drought. Founders built defensible positions in legacy commerce, SaaS, and infrastructure before generative AI collapsed the cost of replicating their features. They are trapped between their last high valuation and a much lower market clearing price. This creates a secondary market opportunity for acquirers and turnaround investors, but it marks a permanent reset for an entire generation of startups that mistook market tailwinds for durable competitive advantage.